November 19, 2013
58% of Ukrainians want to integrate into Europe. Such data were voiced by Deutshe Welle, having indicated that the number of Euro-optimists had grown even in the regions traditionally orientated towards the East. But Ukraine’s leadership has to maneuver between the two vectors – searching for more or less optimal decision, which will allow for improving the country’s economy in the shortest possible terms.
This provides ground for the skeptics to claim that either Ukraine has refused to sign the Association Agreement at the Vilnius Summit or some abstract Europe has placed a concrete barrier on this way. For it is Ukraine with its multivectorness, invented by the second president, Leonid Kuchma, to keep the suspense until the end.
Yes, the Association with Europe might cause a collapse in a number of the domestic industries. And manufactures have recently complained about it during the meeting with Viktor Yanukovych. And the president, of course, let them understand that he had heard them – and charged premier Mykola Azarov to intensify the work on a number of documents as for the cooperation with the Russian Federation.
But at the same time, according to the sources of the weekly newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnia (the Weekly Mirror) during the last meeting at some Russian military base Vladimir Putin failed to persuade Yanukovych for Ukraine to join the Customs Union. Therefore, the fighting positions are located in the same place – and the difficulties, which Ukraine is overcoming on the way to Vilnius, remain the same as a month ago and half a year ago.
The main problem, as it is seen today, lies not in the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko. I am confident that should European voters get to know at least the tenth part of what we know about the Kachanivka prison convict, they definitely would not blame their politicians on the signing of the Agreement, even under the condition of the extension of the prison sentence for Yulia Volodymyrivna.
And one more thing, despite the lack of my great affection to any ruling government, I cannot help agreeing with the rhetoric that it is inappropriate to pass the law for one person. How are tens, thousands of other convicts, simply having no money for medical treatment in the EU, worse? In this way all crime bosses and corrupters will travel to the EU for treatment. The question is: do Europeans really need this?
No, the key problem today – is the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Sources from most different political and diplomatic circles inform that it is exactly Merkel who maintains hard line of “either Tymoshenko is free or no Agreement”. This might indicate both the assistance to a friend and Russia’s sophisticated conspiracy – not only against Ukraine but also against the whole Atlantic world.
The German establishment has been orientated towards the Kremlin from time immemorial. And after the collapse of the Berlin wall this tendency shows itself again and again. And today Ms Chancellor might be playing up to her Kremlin vis-à-vis, throwing sand in the wheels of not only Ukraine’s associate entry to the EU but also of creating a huge Free Trade Zone – from California to Donbas.
However, in one and a half weeks everything secret will become apparent.
So far it can be stated that in the conditions of such uncertainty Kyiv has nothing to do but to maneuver within the old paradigm – between the East and the West. And this, of course, plays into the hands of the East.
And there is a reason why the Russian mass media are never tired to replicate the opinion that, they say, Ukraine is moving towards the failure of the Agreement signature or, at least, towards its postponement until the indefinite time – a year, two and so on.
This, as a matter of fact, is quite a possible scenario, despite the statements of the Polish ex-president, Aleksander Kwasniewski. Only if there is such postponement, it will last not for a year or two but for several years.
Can the EU or the western world as a whole somehow influence these movements? Yes, they can. Of course, the demands to deal with Ukraine as in its time they did with Poland – that is, to write off the debt, providing it with money, – sound a little weird. But some additional inducements would be quite to the point. Germany does provide such inducements to Greece, having deluded Brussels with the false data.
And Ukraine will not even be able to delude – as the attention to its domestic economic processes is enormous on the part of big companies, corporations and embassies.
Author : Anton Podlutskyi