The Kremlin leadership seems to be completely unfamiliar with the genre of the comedy in the noir style. Otherwise they would know that if fear is over the limit it becomes laughter.
If analyzing the information anti-European campaign of the Russian Federation with respect to Ukraine, the inability of Russian bonzes to generate new messages becomes clear. But, seriously, how long is it possible to keep saying that because of the EU Association Ukraine will be losing up to 12 billion dollars a year only in the trade with Russia? And how much will Ukraine benefit from an opportunity to enter European markets? Here the Kremlin propagandists shyly keep quiet as it is awkward to compare the markets of the Russian Federation (even the whole Customs Union) and the European market.
It is obvious for everyone that in the short-term perspective a number of domestic industries will suffer a colossal test; but this always happens while introducing new approaches and technologies. In addition, the implementation of new approaches and technologies even in the mid-term perspective promises a stable growth in a number of industries. But Kremlin speakers prefer keeping quiet, mumbling the same thing over and over again – on a daily basis.
And Sergey Ivanov, Head of President Putin’s Administration, states that the EU Association will mean a death of the Ukrainian aircraft-building industry, space industry, ship-building, atomic machine-building and the whole nuclear power engineering at that. Let us analyze the claims above.
The aircraft-building; the Russian State United Aviation Corporation dreams of acquiring the aircraft-builders in Ukraine, regularly putting a spoke in the wheel of Ukrainian brothers, either by denying them the participation in tenders or by purchasing goods and services from its competitors. What about the domestic aircraft-building? It is still alive and kicking, more and more glancing in the direction of the West – the XXI century technologies.
That what Russia has to do with the Ukrainian space industry remains absolutely unclear. Since the times of Leonid Kuchma this industry has been increasingly integrating into western and Latin American projects but definitely not into the launches at Baikonur, which Kazakhs moan about and do not know how to get rid of the monster from the Soviet times.
The ship-building in Ukraine, alas, remains in such a deplorable condition that neither Russia nor, perhaps, Europe, nor China will save this industry. It is owing to a many year aide of Viktor Yushchenko, Vira Ulyanchenko, who as far back as in the middle of the 90’s dashingly squandered one of the world’s biggest commercial and fishing fleet. But even today, and this is interesting, a former Russian citizen Vadym Novynskiy – Rinat Akhmetov’s partner, having received the Ukrainian citizenship and then having won the parliamentary elections, is taking care of the ship-building. And what does Russia have to do with it?
The atomic machine-building and nuclear power engineering, obviously, is more alluring for Europe than for Russia, especially in the view of the Ukrainian electric power surplus and the negative attitude towards nuclear power plants in the European Union. And the hesitations of Energoatom between Russians, the French and Canadians after the Association Agreement signature will almost definitely come to an end. The choice will not be made in Rosatom’s favor. Who will the Russian corporation be profiteering on? Evidently, that is not Ukraine’s issue.
Further scary stories about the impossibility of creating the so-called grain pool (grain OPEC) including Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan are not even worth discussing. Here what, for example, a Ukrainian expert Oleh Nivyevskiy said in this respect. “The idea of creating the grain pool of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are fairy-tales… Ukraine will need to monopolize the export market for that. I believe that this specific idea of the grain pool cannot be realized,” emphasized the expert.
The talks that after the Association Agreement signature Ukraine will become a major work force exporter are totally of a “Queen Ann is dead!” kind. According to different estimates from three to eight million Ukrainians are already laboring abroad. And (how surprising!) the majority are working exactly in European countries and the countries of the NATO bloc. So, is the Association not beneficial for us, within whose framework Ukrainian migrant workers will be able to get more security later? It is a rhetoric question.
It is difficult here not to agree with the former vice-premier of the Russian Federation in the Yeltsin era, Alfred Kokh who wrote in his Facebook that the Kremlin scares Ukrainians with the EU Association exactly because there will follow no disaster for Ukraine. “Ours, of course, will be jumping out of their pants to organize it (the disaster) for them. And they will even be tearing economic liaisons damaging themselves and fencing off with customs barriers,” wrote Kokh.
In the view of Russia’s economy having entered a stage of the lingering recession, the Kremlin leadership had better think about their current problems rather than hastily tear the existing ties with Ukrainian enterprises. But this is exactly the case when tyranny goes against common sense – and ruins itself and the whole country at that. It happened in the times of Ivan the Terrible; it happened during the last years of the Romanovs reign, it happened when the USSR collapsed. It is terrifying if the same story happens with Russia again – Ukraine does not need a civil war in a neighboring country.