The most powerful player – the United States of America – has finally joined the fight for the geopolitical choice of Ukraine.
The first to speak out in this respect, as it should be, on behalf of President Barack Obama was US State Secretary John Kerry. In connection with the 22nd anniversary of Ukraine’s independence John Kerry said the following, “We strongly support Ukraine’s fulfillment of the European Union’s conditions for signature of the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement at the Vilnius Summit in November.”
The White House rhetoric was continued by the US Ambassador to Ukraine, who was already nicknamed here the “hawk”, Geoffrey Pyatt. “My top priority is to continue to work on Ukraine’s aspiration to move closer to Europe, to become institutionally part of Europe. Specifically that means getting to success on the Association Agreement which, we hope very much will be signed at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius in November. That’s probably the number one issue that will be on my agenda at least over the next couple of months,” stated the Ambassador.
Thus, confirming the univocal mood of his state leadership, the Ambassador remarked that the US intends to help Ukraine achieve greater energy independence from Russia. In particular, that means the development of shale gas deposits by the companies ExxonMobil and Chevron.
I will note that these companies are already working in Ukraine and, most likely, on industrial scale shale gas will be produced in Ukraine by 2017. That would strike an irreparable blow on the positions of “Gazprom”, especially if we remember that Ukraine is the biggest and so far most disciplined customer of the Russian monopolist monster.
The loss of Ukraine as the sales market of Russian gas (contingently, because “Gazprom” sells both Ukraine and the EU also Central Asian gas) will cross out “Gazprom” of the list of the most influential companies of the world once and forever. And that, quite possibly, will lead to significant upheavals in Russia itself. The efforts of the Kremlin to play on the subject of shale gas, including in Ukraine, have failed. Russian “Lukoil” never received the right to such activity in Ukraine, and in Russia itself there are neither enough stores of shale gas nor appropriate technologies.
We can argue about the benefits which American companies will get in Ukraine. But there is a definite advantage for Ukraine itself – energy independence is the key factor of our political independence.
And if this independence comes from the hands of the overseas bigwigs – be it so. The reliance on some understanding from the closest neighbours, Russians, and also support did not justify itself in the context of the last customs conflict which seems to be only aggravating.
On the contrary, the US, except technological support in the development of gas deposits, is likely to provide other assistance.
First, cancelation of antidumping measures against Ukrainian industrial products is possible.
Second, it is rejection of the implicit pressure on some Ukrainian officials.
And third, of course, informational support, it is not a secret that Kyiv is incapable to independently win the information war against the Kremlin – the more so in the EU where the financial presence of Russians corporations is very and very wide scale. That is why even loyalty from across the Atlantic is a substantial assistance to the Ukrainian establishment in its ever-growing confrontation with the leadership of the Russian Federation.
Some one might say that the States, perhaps, do not do it because they are so kind but following their own interests. And that is undoubtedly true. It also includes the lobby of the huge oil and gas corporations; and the aspiration to expand their presence on the European continent (only Poland is not enough); and a real opportunity to weaken Russia in the West while it is being weakened by Chine and other Far Eastern “tigers” in the East.
This is exactly the case which can be illustrated with the words of Lord Palmerston about England. “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow,” the lord wrote to Queen Victoria. Her Highness liked the dictum so much that she made it popular.
So, the eternal interest of Ukraine is to be strong and really independent. But currently it is impossible due to excessive Russian pressure and presence. That is, we need to more drastically dissociate ourselves from the efforts to revive the empire and continue a more flexible course – which is only possible in the framework of European integration. Of course, the situation might change sometime but today it is exactly such.
And the US aspiration to secure their interests in most Eastern Europe coincides with our national interests.
Moreover, if sometime the transatlantic project “Free Trade Zone between the US and EU” comes into being – would it not be beneficial for Ukraine to belong to the preferred set of the project? It would be very beneficial and much more beneficial than tens of the Customs Unions.
The more so after the escapades of Kazakhstan and the quiet economic expansion of China there will be nothing left from Putin’s daydreams, except lands to the west from the Urals…